经济增长、社会保障和储蓄的互动性关系研究

摘要

This paper uses VAR model,VEC model and impulse response methods to research the relationship among economic growth,social security and savings. Research shows that, in the long run, economic growth has had a huge impact on social security, but the influence of the direction in the presence of uncertainty, at the same time, increase in economic growth will also promote the savings rate. Social security has a significant effect on the savings rate, when the social security transfer income increase, the savings rate also have a corresponding increase, rising savings rate and not to the role in promoting economic growth.Besides, the VEC model shows economic growth,social security and savings are impacted by the laggings.%采用向量自回归模型、向量误差修正模型以及脉冲响应和方差分解方法，对经济增长、社会保障和储蓄的互动性关系进行实证研究。结果表明，从长期看，经济增长对社会保障有巨大的影响，但影响的方向存在不确定性，同时，经济增长也会促使储蓄率的上升。社会保障对储蓄率有显著的促进作用，当社会保障转移收入提高，储蓄率也有相应增长，而储蓄率的上升并没有对经济增长起到促进作用。此外，向量误差模型也表明经济增长、社会保障和国民储蓄率都受到自身滞后期的影响。