居民消费的影响因素及趋势分析--基于非线性面板数据模型

摘要

文章基于非线性平滑转换面板数据模型，分析我国城市居民和农村居民消费的影响因素以及变化趋势，实证结果如下：我国城市居民和农村民居均具有稳定的消费习惯，且稳定性随着收入水平递增；人均收入与居民消费率负相关；财政支出对居民消费率的挤入效应随着收入水平增加逐渐变小；城市老年抚养比和少年抚养比与居民消费率均为正相关，农村少年抚养比与居民消费率负相关；利率对居民消费率的影响随收入水平增加呈倒U型形状的变化。%The paper analyzes the factors and trend which affect Chinese urban and rural residents’consumption based on the nonlinear smooth transition panel data model. The empirical results show that: both urban and rural residents have sta-ble consumption habit which is gradually strengthened with the increase of income. Per capita income is negative correlation with household consumption ratio. The‘crowding-in effect’of the government expenditure to residents’consumption ratio decreases with the increase of income level. The old-age support ratio has a positive effect on household consumption, so does the young-age support ratio in the cities, while the young-age support ratio has a negative effect in the rural areas. The effect of interest rate on household consumption show the inverted U shape.