城镇化进程、农业结构调整与农业产业发展优先序--基于山东省面板数据的实证分析

摘要

农村城镇化发展进程，对农业产业结构调整有着深刻影响。在定性分析基础上，文章选取山东省1990-2011年17个地市的面板数据，通过建立城镇化与农业产业结构关系的回归模型，以量化城镇化对农业产业结构调整的影响程度。结果表明，城镇化对农业产业结构调整存在一定程度的影响，且对各地市影响程度各不相同。各地市应因地制宜，稳步推进城镇化进程，促进农业产业结构的优化升级；实现城乡统筹、城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展。%The rapid urbanization process of rural areas has a profound influence on the adjustment of agriculture structure. Based on the qualitative analysis,this paper selects the panel data of 17 cities in Shandong province from 1990 to 2011,try⁃ing to set up regression model of urbanization and agriculture structure, and quantify the influence degree of urbanization on the adjustment of agriculture structure.The result shows that the urbanization has a certain influence on the agriculture structure, and the influence is different in each city.Each city’s government should accelerate the urbanization process according to lo⁃cal conditions and promote the agriculture structure upgrade,to achieve a harmony development between urban and rural,the urbanization and modernization of agriculture.