中国-俄罗斯FTA的贸易、关税及福利效应--基于WITS-SMART的模拟分析

摘要

Currently,it is urgent for both China and Russia to consolidate the economic foundation of bilateral strategic part-nership through the FTA. Using the WITS-SMART model, the paper provides insights on trade, tariffs and welfare effects of China-Russia FTA. The results show that the majority of production sectors will benefit from the expansion of trade along with the continuous reduction of tariffs under the FTA framework. The overall economic welfare of China and Russia will increase re-gardless of the decline of two country’ s tariff revenues. If China and Russia can achieve zero tariff as soon as possible, the trade between the two countries will grow rapidly. Therefore, both China and Russia should realize the significances of Chi-na-Russian FTA and promote FTA negotiations at the strategic level,and ultimately reach and sign the FTA.%当前，中国与俄罗斯亟需通过FTA夯实双方战略伙伴关系的经贸基础。文章利用WITS-SMART模型估算了中俄FTA的贸易、关税以及福利效应，结果显示：随着FTA框架下关税不断削减，中俄两国大多数产品部门都将从贸易规模扩张中受益，尽管两国的关税收入会出现下降，但是整体的经济福利都将获得提升。如果两国能够尽快实现零关税，那么两国之间的贸易往来会获得快速增长。因此，中俄两国需要从战略层面把握中俄FTA建设的重要意义，尽快推动中俄FTA谈判与建设。