现代服务业经济先行指标构建--基于江苏省1991-2011年数据实证分析

摘要

The country wishes to realize the modernization, which requires regional service industry should take the lead. Therefore,the research which aims at the economic leading indicators is the guide of mastering the development of modern ser-vice industry. This essay tries to set up the leading indicator system for modern service industry in Jiangsu Province by taking do-mestic and overseas experience, screening the indexes through correlation analysis on time differences and K-L information content combing with characters and statistical data of modern service industry, through the econometric test and conducting prediction and analysis from index. The essay takes the empirical analyses on the influence of selecting ten main factors in statis-tical data of 1991-2011 on modern service industry Jiangsu Province.%国家要实现现代化，需要区域服务业率先现代化，为此，针对经济先行指标的研究是掌握现代服务业发展的指南。文章运用先行性指标体系构建原理，结合现代服务业特征和统计数据，运用时差相关分析和K-L信息量方法对指标进行筛选，通过计量经济学检验，最后制作扩散指数进行预测和分析，建立江苏现代服务业经济预测分析先行指标体系，并选取1991-2011年统计数据中10类主要因素对江苏省现代服务业的影响进行了实证分析。