基于消费-储蓄模型的税收递延政策影响研究

摘要

The policy of deferred-tax on commercial endowment insurance is of great importance to the establishment and im⁃provement of pension system. In this paper, two different individual consumption-saving models, which are named as non-tax deferred model and tax deferred model, are built separately to study the effect of deferred-tax policy on optimal individual choices. Through modeling process, we come to the following conclusions:If the deferred tax rate equals the working period tax rate, individual demand for annuity insurance will increase, and yet the other demand and his/her expected utility will keep sta⁃ble. In this situation, the deferred tax policy is an Pareto improvement;If it is less than the working period tax rate, individual working period consumption, demand for annuity insurance and his expected utility will increase while individual bank saving will decrease;If it is greater than the working period tax rate, individual working period consumption, demand for annuity in⁃surance and his/her expected utility will decrease but individual bank savings will increase.%商业养老保险税收递延政策对完善养老保障体系具有重要意义。文章分别在无税收递延政策和有税收递延政策情形下建立了个体消费—储蓄模型，通过对比两种情形下的个体最优行为，分析了税收递延政策对个体行为的影响。研究表明：当递延税收税率与工作期税率相等时，个体年金保险需求增加、其他行为及效用不变，此时税收递延政策是一种帕累托改进；当递延税收税率小于工作期税率时，个体当期消费、年金保险需求及效用增加，银行存款减少；当递延税收税率大于工作期税率时，个体当期消费、年金保险需求及效用减少，银行存款增加。