预测发震时间的水氡滑动变化率值及其检验

摘要

This paper introduced the computation formula of groundwater radon slip changerate, statistical relation between slip change rate evolution and origin time of earthquake occur-rence, on this basis, the step of origin time prediction by using groundwater radon slip changerate value, judgement index and method are given. Combining the earthquake cases, the pre-diction efficiency is evaluated, result indicates that the predicted origin time range is 1～12month, the average is 5.1 month. This method may apply to medium- and short-term earth-quake prediction.%介绍了水氡滑动变化率的计算公式，滑动变化率的演化与地震时间的统计关系，据此给出了水氡滑动变化率值发震时间预测的步骤、判断指标和方法。结合震例，对预测效能进行了评价。检验性预测结果表明，预测的发震期限为1～12个月，平均5.1个月。该方法可以用于强震中短期预报。