Price Prediction of Seasonal Items Using Machine Learning and Statistical Methods

摘要

Price prediction of goods is a vital point of research due to how common e-commerce platforms are.There are several efforts conducted to forecast the price of items using classicmachine learning algorithms and statisticalmodels.These models can predict prices of various financial instruments,e.g.,gold,oil,cryptocurrencies,stocks,and second-hand items.Despite these efforts,the literature has no model for predicting the prices of seasonal goods(e.g.,Christmas gifts).In this context,we framed the task of seasonal goods price prediction as a regression problem.First,we utilized a real online trailer dataset of Christmas gifts and then we proposed several machine learningbased models and one statistical-based model to predict the prices of these seasonal products.Second,we utilized a real-life dataset of Christmas gifts for the prediction task.Then,we proposed support vector regressor(SVR),linear regression,random forest,and ridgemodels as machine learningmodels for price prediction.Next,we proposed an autoregressive-integrated-movingaverage(ARIMA)model for the same purpose as a statistical-based model.Finally,we evaluated the performance of the proposed models;the comparison shows that the best performing model was the random forest model,followed by the ARIMA model.