Platelet-albumin-bilirubin score - a predictor of outcome of acute variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis

摘要

BACKGROUND The albumin-bilirubin(ALBI)score was validated as a prognostic indicator in patients with liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma.Incorporating platelet count in the platelet-albumin-bilirubin(PALBI)score improved validity in predicting outcome of patients undergoing resection and ablation.AIM To evaluate the PALBI score in predicting outcome of acute variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis.METHODS The data of 1517 patients with cirrhosis presenting with variceal bleeding were analyzed.Child Turcotte Pugh(CTP)class,Model of End-stage Liver Disease(MELD),ALBI and PALBI scores were calculated on admission,and were correlated to the outcome of variceal bleeding.Areas under the receivingoperator characteristic curve(AUROC)were calculated for survival and rebleeding.RESULTS Mean age was 52.6 years;1176 were male(77.5%),69 CTP-A(4.5%),434 CTP-B(29.2%),1014 CTP-C(66.8%);306 PALBI-1(20.2%),285 PALBI-2(18.8%),and 926 PALBI-3(61.1%).Three hundred and thirty-two patients died during hospitalization(21.9%).Bleeding-related mortality occurred in 11%of CTP-B,28%of CTP-C,in 21.8%of PALBI-2 and 34.4%of PALBI-3 patients.The AUROC for predicting survival of acute variceal bleeding was 0.668,0.689,0.803 and 0.871 for CTP,MELD,ALBI and PALBI scores,respectively.For predicting rebleeding the AUROC was 0.681,0.74,0.766 and 0.794 for CTP,MELD,ALBI and PALBI scores,respectively.CONCLUSION PALBI score on admission is a good prognostic indicator for patients with acute variceal bleeding and predicts early mortality and rebleeding.