On the Downscaling of Meteorological Fields Using Recurrent Networks for Modelling the Water Balance in a Meso-Scale Catchment Area of Saxony,Germany

摘要

In this study, recurrent networks to downscale meteorological fields of the ERA-40 re-analysis dataset with focus on the meso-scale water balance were investigated. Therefore two types of recurrent neural networks were used. The first approach is a coupling between a recurrent neural network and a distributed watershed model and the second a nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) network, which directly predicted the component of the water balance. The approaches were deployed for a meso-scale catchment area in the Free State of Saxony, Germany. The results show that the coupled approach did not perform as well as the NARX network. But the meteorological output of the coupled approach already reaches an adequate quality. However the coupled model generates as input for the watershed model insufficient daily precipitation sums and not enough wet days were predicted. Hence the long-term annual cycle of the water balance could not be preserved with acceptable quality in contrary to the NARX approach. The residual storage change term indicates physical restrictions of the plausibility of the neural networks, whereas the physically based correlations among?the components of the water balance were preserved more accurately by the coupled approach.