Probabilistic Analysis of Life Cycle Cost for Power Transformer

摘要

The selection of power transformer is very important to power sector. Most methods are utilized according to the initial cost and don’t consider the synthetical evaluation of economy and technology. Based on previous research, this paper addresses a new practical probabilistic life cycle cost model. Then, in order to demonstrate the practicability of probabilistic life cycle cost for the power transformer, illustrative investment alternatives of actual power transformers are discussed. From the result of the numerical investigation, it may be positively stated that the optimum investment alternative for the power transformer based on the probabilistic life cycle cost model proposed in this study will lead to a more rational, economical and effective procedure compared with the conventional method only considering the initial cost.