Delayed Dynamics of SIR Model for COVID-19

摘要

This paper presents a new modified SIR model which incorporates appropriate delay parameters leading to a more precise prediction of COVID-19 real time data. The efficacy of the newly developed SIR model is proven by comparing its predictions to real data obtained from four counties namely Germany, Italy, Kuwait, and Oman. Two included delay periods for incubation and recovery within the SIR model produce a sensible and more accurate representation of the real time data. In the absence of the two-delay period () the dynamical behavior of the model will not correspond to today’s picture and lag the detection of the epidemic peak. The reproductive number R0 is defined for the model for values of recovery time delay of the infective case. The effect of recovery time may produce second wave, and/or an oscillation which could destabilize the behavior of the system and a periodic oscillation can arise due to Hopf bifurcation phenomenon.