1961-2012年塔城地区极端温度事件变化特征

摘要

With extreme climate index method recommended by the World Meteorological Organization , the regional index of six extreme temperatures from 1961 to 2012 were analyzed in order to understand the region changes of extreme temperature events. Results show that in the area during recent 52 years cold days, cold night event and frost days had 3.5,9.3,and 4.3 d/10 a drop rate, and the mutation happened in 1994,1988 and 1979;warm day, warm evening events and high temperature days had a rise rate of 3.6, 8.6, and 0.6 d10 a , and the mutation happened in 1989, 1990 and 1973;Extreme temperatures were about 25~28 a and oscillation period, about 5~8 a, in the spatial distribution of each index rate of decrease (increase) presented small changes in northern, central and southern parts.%选用世界气象组织推荐的极端气候指数方法，对1961—2012年塔城地区6个极端气温指数进行分析，应用百分位法定义极端温度阈值，得出塔城地区极端温度事件变化的基本事实。结果表明：塔城地区近52 a来冷昼、冷夜事件和严寒日数分别以3.5 d/10 a、9.3 d/10 a和4.3 d/10 a的速率下降，突变点分别出现在1994、1988和1979年；暖昼、暖夜事件和高温日数分别以3.6 d/10 a、8.6 d/10 a和0.6 d/10 a的速率在上升，突变点分别出现在1989、1990和1973年；极端气温指标多存在25~28 a和5~8 a的振荡周期，在空间分布上，各指标的减少（增加）速率与纬度、地形相关，随纬度增加而多呈现出北部大，中部、南部小的特点。