2016年乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统预报性能客观检验

摘要

The forecast performance of DOGRAFS v1.0 in 2016 is objectively verified seasonly by MET and further compared with the corresponding period in 2015. It is showed that:(1)the forecasted 2 m temperature in each season in 2016 are always lower than the corresponding observations,especially in the noon. Which is best predicted in the summer while worst in the winter. The forecasted 10 m wind are mainly higher than observations,the average error is within 1.0 m/s with no obvious differences in each season.(2)Negative deviations in 500 hPa geopotential height and temperature are mainly showed in 2016,with its 24 h forecast results better than 48 h. The performance of 500 hPa geopotential height is best in summer and worst in autumn,while the temperature is the best in summer and the worst in winter.(3)The 6 h accumulated rainfall judgment has been well predicted in 2016,with its best performance in the summer while the worst in the winter,while better in the latter half of daytime. Its Threat Score decreased with the increase of the column threshold.(4)The variation characteristics of forecast bias of each variable in 2016 is similar with that of 2015,and the forecast performance in 2016 is generally better than 2015.%基于MET检验工具对乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统DOGRAFS v1.0在2016年各季节中的预报性能进行客观检验评估,主要检验要素有2 m温度、10 m风、500 hPa形势场等,并与2015年同期预报性能进行对比分析,结果表明:(1)2016年该系统对各个季节2 m温度预报以冷偏差为主,午间偏低幅度较大;夏季性能最优,冬季性能最差.对10 m风预报以正偏差为主,平均误差在1.0 m/s以内;各季节预报性能无明显差异.(2)2016年该系统对500 hPa位势高度和温度预报以负偏差为主;位势高度预报性能夏季最优、秋季最差;温度预报性能夏季最优、冬季最差.24 h预报时效的预报性能整体优于48 h预报时效.(3)2016年晴雨预报效果较好,夏季降水评分最高、冬季最低.随降水阈值增大、TS评分降低,系统对夏季午后至夜间降水预报评分较高.(4)2015年各要素预报偏差的变化特征与2016年相似,2016年预报性能整体优于2015年.