基于灰色时序模型的蒸馏装置腐蚀预测

摘要

利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测蒸馏装置腐蚀的宏观变化趋势,再利用时间序列模型对灰色模型的预测误差进行预测.利用灰色时间序列组合模型对蒸馏塔塔顶换热器入口分布管弯头的管壁厚度进行预测并与实际测量值进行比较,该模型比仅用灰色模型预测效果更好.最后利用灰色时序模型对弯管使用寿命进行了预测,为设备检修提供参考依据.%By researching on methods of fault prediction, the grey model and time series model were combined to predict distillation unit corrosion, of which, the grey model predicted the corrosion trend, and the date and time series model predicted the error of grey model prediction. This combination model can be employed to predict both elbow thickness and its working life of the distributed tubes of heat exchanger at the top of distillation column, and then having the predictive value compared with the actual one. The results show that this combination model outperforms the grey model in prediction.