人口老化对中国不同要素密集型产品出口的影响

摘要

By using the SITC classification approach, export products are divided into resource-intensive, labor-inten⁃sive and capital-intensive products. By establishing auto-regressive and error correction model, the paper empirically an⁃alyzes the impact of aging of population on export structure using China′s population structure and export trade data from 1990 to 2014. Results show that the aging of population and labor force will promote the export of capital-intensive prod⁃ucts, and restrain the export of resource-intensive and labor-intensive products in the long run, while this influence is not significant in the short term.%本文采用SITC分类方法将出口产品分解成资源密集型、劳动密集型和资本密集型产品，建立自回归和误差修正模型，利用中国1990－2014年人口结构和出口贸易数据实证分析人口老化对出口结构的影响，结果表明，人口和劳动力老龄化在长期会促进资本密集型产品的出口，而对资源和劳动密集型产品出口不利，在短期这种影响则并不显著。