Oil wells on the North Slope of Alaska pass through deep deposits of permafrost. The heat transferred during their operation causes localized thawing, resulting in ground subsidence adjacent to the well casings. This subsidence has a damaging effect, causing the casings to compress, deform, and potentially fail. This paper presents the results of a laboratory study of the thaw consolidation strain of deep permafrost and its predictive modeling. Tests were performed to determine strains due to thaw and post-thaw loading, as well as soil index properties. Results, together with data from an earlier testing program, were used to produce empirical models for predicting strains and ground subsidence. Four distinct strain cases were analyzed with three models by multiple regression analyses, and the best-fitting model was selected for each case. Models were further compared in a ground subsidence prediction using a shared subsurface profile. Laboratory results indicate that strains due to thaw and post-thaw testing in deep core permafrost are insensitive to depth and are more strongly influenced by stress redistributions and the presence of ice lenses and inclusions. Modeling results show that the most statistically valid and useful models were those constructed using moisture content, porosity, and degree of saturation. The applicability of these models was validated by comparison with results from Finite Element modeling.
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