Vulnerability and adaptation of an oasis social–ecological system affected by glacier change in an arid region of northwestern China

摘要

The Hexi Inland River Basin in an arid region of northwestern China was chosen as the study area for this research.The authors define the vulnerability of an oasis social-ecological system to glacier change;select 16 indicators from natural and socioeconomic systems according to exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity;and construct a vulnerability-assessment indicator system aimed at an inland river basin in the arid region of Northwestern China.Vulnerability of the oasis socialecological system affected by glacier change in the study area is evaluated by Spatial Principal Component Analysis(SPCA)under the circumstance of glacier change.The key factors affecting the vulnerability are analyzed.The vulnerability of the oasis social-ecological system in the Hexi Inland River Basin affected by glacier change is of more than medium grade,accounting for about 48.0%of the total number of counties in the study area.In terms of the spatial pattern of the vulnerability,the oasis economic belt is the most vulnerable.With the rapid development of the area''s society and economy,the exposure of the system to glacial changes is significantly increased;and an increase in glacial meltwater is not enough to overcome the impact of increased exposure,which is the main reason for the high vulnerability.Based on the result of the vulnerability analysis and combined with the present industrial structure in the Hexi Inland River Basin,near-,medium-,and long-term adaptation initiatives are put forward in the article.