用经济-气候模型模拟粮食单产的方法探讨

摘要

综合考虑作物生育期内逐旬光、温、水气候条件的影响,通过SVD和EOF方法构建一个综合气候因子,结合经济资料建立吉林省经济-气候模型,并应用于吉林省粮食单产的模拟和年景评估.结果表明:综合气候因子对吉林省粮食单产的影响主要为正效应,经济-气候模型能对吉林省粮食单产和年景进行较好的评估.%Methods of SVD and EOF were used to construct an integrated climate factor with dekad mean temperature, dekad total sunshine and precipitation from April to September; then an economy-climate model was built in combination with economic data to assess the grain yield condition of Jilin Province. The results show that the effect of integrated climate factor on grain yield was positive, and good evaluation was received in the simulation of grain yields and the assessment of annual harvest patterns using the economy-climate model.