基于AHP法的大口径PCCP管道断丝安全风险管理

摘要

Effectively evaluating the safety on the structure of large diameter PCCP pipeline broken wires and taking effective measures to repair are the ways to reduce the safety risk of broken wires during South to North Water Diversion Proj ect large diameter PCCP pipeline operation.Based on the method of analytic hierarchy process,the hierarchy analysis mathematical evaluation model is established.The possible factors of the influences of various of South to North Water Diversion Proj ect of underground large diameter PCCP pipe broken wires are scored by experts.At the same time,the PCCP pipeline safety failure j udgment criterion and the j udgment standard are established through the numerical simulation.The quantification of safety risk assessment of large diameter PCCP pipe is realized.A specific PCCP North South Pipeline engineering safety running and risk management software is developed. With real-time monitoring automation technology and the risk management system of Web-GIS ,the software can perform real-time acquisition of the monitoring data,data file of electronic management and dynamic assessment and early warming of safety risk.%如何有效地对大口径PCCP管道断丝后管道结构的安全进行合理地评价，以便采取积极有效的维修措施，是减少南水北调大口径 PCCP管道运营期间断丝安全风险的有效途径。提出利用层次分析方法（AHP）建立PCCP管道安全风险层次分析数学评价模型，对影响南水北调地下大口径PCCP管道断丝的各种可能因素进行专家打分，同时，通过数值模拟计算，建立 PCCP管道安全失效的判断准则及判断标准，实现大口径PCCP管道安全风险评价的定量化。在此基础上，开发出一款专门针对南水北调中线PCCP管道工程安全运行风险实时监测的管理软件。该软件系统采用自动化实时监测技术和基于 Web-GIS的风险管理系统。该系统能完成监测数据的实时采集、数据档案的电子化管理以及安全风险的动态评估与预警预报。