Characteristics of the Kind of Intense Convective Systems With Forcing and Dissipation and Its Forecasting

摘要

According to the theory of the nonlinear dynamical systems with forcing and dissipation,theconceptual ideas are proposed that the intense convective system is an attractor of the meso-scale dynamicalsystem,in which the large-scale fields serve as the bifurcation parameters that evolve slowly.The intenseconvective systems occur explosively when the intensity of the large-scale system passes a bifurcation point.Thus,its prediction is just to predict the evolution of the attractor,independent of the mesoscale initial con-ditions.A primitive spectral limited-area model has been developed and two realistic cases,which were cap-tured by the Eastern China area mesoscale experiment,have been simulated by using this model.The resultshave proved the theoretical points.