舰船装备维修费预测方法评价准则体系研究

摘要

Aiming at the limitation of effect evaluation in ship equipment maintenance cost forecasting,which would result in high risks by adopting single accuracy criteria. The evaluation criteria of forecasting methods were summarized, which was based on the analysis of researching development on existing forecast evaluation criteria. Then, the characteristics of ship equipment maintenance cost forecasting were analyzed. Finally, combining the above two parts, the evaluation criteria system of forecast methods which fit for maintenance cost of ship equipment is established, which is in favor of improving reliability of ship equipment maintenance cost forecasting, reducing forecasting risk, and providing reliable foundation for ship equipment life cycle cost(LCC) forecast and maintenance.%针对舰船装备维修费预测效果评价仅采用单一的精度准则可能导致较大预测风险的缺陷,在分析现有预测评价准则研究现状的基础上,总结了现有的预测方法评价准则,并通过进一步结合对舰船装备维修费预测特点的分析,建立了适合于舰船装备维修费预测方法评价的准则体系.建立的准则体系有利于提高舰船装备维修费预测的可靠性,降低预测风险,为舰船装备全寿命费用预测和舰船装备维修工作提供可靠的基础.