The ecological carrying capacity,an important indica- tor to evaluate the sustainable development of the ecosystem, means the potential ability of the natural ecosystem to carry so- cioeconomic development while the ecosystem is healthy.It is limited by the carrying capacity of natural resources and environ- ment and the elasticity of the ecosystem.It will be greatly signifi- cant to study the ecological carrying capacity of Hainan Province, the first ecological province admitted by the State Environmental Protection Administration in China.Not only is the natural eco- system reflected,but also the effects of human activities are em- phasized by integrating the ecosystem health analysis into the ecological carrying capacity research.The research results,using the Factor Analysis tools of software SPSS,indicate that the eco- logical carrying capacity of Hainan Province fluctuated obviously from 1996 to 2005.The level of the ecological carrying capacity of Hainan Province was relatively high in 1996,and reached into trough from 1997 to 1999.It has steadily ascended to be above the middle level since the 21st century.The results also show that policy factors,especially the implementation of the 'Ecological Province' strategy,were important driving forces to influence the ecological carrying capacity.With the population rapidly increas- ing,the land and water resources per capita have decreased quickly.The amount of the ecological carrying capacity was pro- moted remarkably by socioeconomic development especially economic growth and technology applications.All of these will provide useful suggestions to establish and enact regional devel- opment policies,especially for protecting and reconstructing the ecology and environment of Hainan Province.
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