Decomposition of Energy-related CO2 Emissions from Shanghai＇s Industries and Policy Implications

摘要

This paper quantifies a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in the industrial sectors of Shanghai over the period 1994-2007.The Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is applied to this study in terms of six factors: labor force, labor mobility, gross labor productivity, energy intensity, fuel mix, and emission coefficient. In addition, the decoupling effect be- tween industrial economic growth and CO2 emissions is analyzed to evaluate CO2 mitigation strategies for Shanghai. The results show that all labor productivity has the largest positive effect on CO2 emission changes in the industrial sectors, whereas labor mo- bility and energy intensity are the main components for decreasing CO2 emissions. Other factors have different effects on CO2 mitiga- tion in different sub-periods. Although a relative decoupling of industrial CO2 emissions from the economic growth in Shanghai has been found, Shanghai should keep pace with the industrial CO2 emissions reduction by implementing low-carbon technology. These results have important policy implications: Plan C is the reasonable choice for Shanghai.