Predict typhoon-induced storm surge deviation in a principal component back-propagation neural network model

摘要

To reduce typhoon-caused damages,numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge.However,typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately.We applied a principal component back-propagation neural network (PCBPNN) to predict the deviation in typhoon storm surge,in which data of the typhoon,upstream flood,and historical case studies were involved.With principal component analysis,15 input factors were reduced to five principal components,and the application of the model was improved.Observation data from Huangpu Park in Shanghai,China were used to test the feasibility of the model.The results indicate that the model is capable of predicting a 12-hour warning before a typhoon surge.