采用科学方法对内蒙古玉米产量差与生产潜力进行定量化研究,对合理规划内蒙古玉米增产途径及产业发展具有重要意义。本研究采用品种×密度联网试验和 Hybrid-Maize 模型模拟相结合的方法,利用2006年以来内蒙古各生态区历年高产攻关田的最高实测产量和各区域农户平均产量,对内蒙古全区和6大生态类型区的玉米产量差和生产潜力进行了系统分析。结果表明,各生态区的模拟产量、高产纪录、试验产量、农户产量皆表现为从东到西逐步提高。内蒙古玉米模拟产量潜力为14.9 t×hm-2,高产纪录产量为14.4 t×hm-2,试验产量为11.1 t×hm-2,农户产量分别实现了模拟产量潜力的49%、高产纪录产量的51%和试验产量的66%。基于模型模拟的产量差(YGM)、基于高产纪录的产量差(YGR)和基于试验产量的产量差(YGE)分别为7.5 t×hm-2、7.0 t×hm-2和3.8 t×hm-2。基于YGE的短期生产潜力达3525.2万t,是当前总产水平的1.6倍,短期增产潜力为1191.9万t。其中,内蒙古东部的呼伦贝尔、兴安盟、通辽、赤峰4盟市对全区的增产贡献率将达61%,西部的呼和浩特市、巴彦淖尔市为16%。造成较大YGE主要原因是栽培管理措施不当,缩小YGE需要针对限制各生态区玉米增产的实际问题,通过栽培技术综合改良、技术简化和技术入户来逐步实现。%AbstractExploitation of yield gaps in current maize production was needed for increasing grain yields to meet future food requirements. The quantification of yield gap and production potential by scientific method was critical for rational planning of production and development of maize industry in Inner Mongolia. This study combined cultivar and density network test data with Hybrid-Maize model simulation, and used data of recorded the highest yield since 2006, the average yield of the farmers in different ecological regions in Inner Mongolia to analyze the yield gap and production potential of Inner Mongolia and its six ecological regions. Based on the modeled yield potential, the highest recorded yield, experimental yield and farmers’ yield generally increased from the east to the west of Inner Mongolia. Maize yield potential in Inner Mongolia was 14.9 t×hm-2, with the highest recorded yield of 14.4 t×hm-2 and experimental yield of 11.1 t×hm-2. Farmers’ yield reached 49% of the modeled yield potential, 51% of the highest recorded yield and 66% of the experimental yield. Yield gap based on the modeled yield potential (YGM), the highest recorded yield (YGR) and experimental yield (YGE) was 7.5 t×hm-2, 7.0 t×hm-2 and 3.8 t×hm-2, respectively. Based on YGE, the short-term production potential in Inner Mongolia was 3 525.2×104 tons (which was 1.6 times of the current maize production) and the short-term production gap was 1 191.9×104 tons. In the short-term, the four eastern regions (including Hulunber, Xing’an, Tongliao and Chifeng) contributed 61% to the production potential of the whole Inner Mongolia, while the western regions (including Hohhot and Bayannur) contributed only 16%. The main factor of high YGE was inefficient cultivation management practice. To address this challenge, the countermeasures were recommended, such as comprehensive improvement of cultivation management practices, simplification of agronomic techniques easily adopted by farmers, for to gradually narrow YGE.
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