首页> 中文期刊> 《中国农业气象》 >阳澄湖东湖蓝藻密度与前期环境因子的关系

阳澄湖东湖蓝藻密度与前期环境因子的关系

             

摘要

Based on the statistical method of correlation analysis and stepwise multiple regression,authors collected the aquatic environmental and meteorological data in the east part of the Yangcheng Lake from 2010 to 2011 to analyze the connection between the cyanobacteria density and the previous environment factors.The results showed that (1) the cyanobacteria density was greatly affected by water temperature,dissolved oxygen,nutrition salts,air temperature,rainfall,wind direction,wind speed and other environmental factors in the Yangcheng Lake.(2) The air temperature was the main factor of confining the breakout of cyanobacteria.Sunshine condition was not a vital restricting factor to cyanobacteria growth.Low wind speed and little precipitation were apt to accelerate the floating-up rate of cyanobacteria.The southward or northward movement of cyanobacteria in the surface water layer of the Yangcheng Lake was in essential agreement to the prevailing wind direction.(3) When the water quality was satisfied with eutrophication,the blue algae in the Yangcheng Lake was ready to bloom under the average meteorological condition of the preceding 5 days,such as the daily mean temperature less than 30℃,the daily sunshine duration changed from 4 to 10 hours,the daily average precipitation less than 2.5 millimeters,daily average wind speed drifted from 1 to 2.5m/s and the prevailing wind directions lasted over 2 days.(4) A multiple stepwise regression equation was built up to forecast the blue algal blooming and the results of fitting and trial forecasting showed that the simulation values could reflect the changing trends of cyanobacteria density well,but it still had its limit to the forecasting for peak events of algal bloom.%根据阳澄湖2010-2011年水环境和气象观测数据,应用相关分析和逐步回归等方法,对阳澄湖东湖前期环境因子与蓝藻密度间的关系进行分析.结果表明,(1)影响阳澄湖蓝藻密度的重要环境因子有水温、溶解氧、营养盐和气温、降水、风向、风速等.(2)气温是制约阳澄湖蓝藻暴发的主要因子,日照条件不是导致蓝藻暴发的关键因子,微风、少降水的气象条件有利于蓝藻上浮、聚集并形成水华,湖面蓝藻的南北飘移与盛行风向基本一致.(3)在水体满足富营养化的条件下,当某日前5d平均气温<30℃、日平均日照时数为4~10h、日平均降水量<3.0mm、平均风速为1~2.5m/s、盛行风向持续2d以上,则易暴发蓝藻水华.(4)利用前期对蓝藻密度变化有影响的重要环境因子建立了蓝藻密度预报方程,并对阳澄湖蓝藻水华发生状况进行拟合和试报,结果表明所建预报方程拟合率较高,但峰值误差较大.研究结果可为阳澄湖蓝藻监测预警和生态环境保护提供参考.

著录项

  • 来源
    《中国农业气象》 |2013年第3期|324-331|共8页
  • 作者单位

    江苏省昆山市气象局,昆山215300;

    南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044;

    南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044;

    南京信息工程大学教育部陆地碳水循环与气候变化创新团队,南京210044;

    江苏省昆山市气象局,昆山215300;

    南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044;

  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 chi
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    蓝藻密度; 水环境因子; 气象条件; 逐步回归;

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