低碳农业经济指标体系构建及对江苏省的评价

摘要

Low carbon economy has become the new trend of the world's economic and social development.Under the background low carbon agriculture has become a research hotpot.Scientific evaluation index system can provide important information for the evaluation quality of low carbon agricultural economy development.As an overlap region of important agriculture province and developed economy region, the low carbon agricultural economic development in Jiangsu province has the guide meaning for the direction and mode of agriculture in our country.Based on the systematically analysis of the concept and connotation of low carbon agricultural economy, the article established an index system which included 5 criterion layers, such as the agricultural development level, chemical input intensity, efficiency of energy utilization, effective utilization of resources, and agricultural waste utilization level, and then it determined the weight of every index by the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and evaluated the development level of low carbon agriculture economy in Jiangsu province using the comprehensive evaluation model.The results showed that low carbon agriculture economy in Jiangsu province had achieved rapid development since 2005.The chemical input intensity was the main factor restricting the development of low carbon agriculture economy, and the intensity of energy consumption was a key factor to promote the development of low carbon agriculture economy.So, to reduce the chemical inputs intensity, such as fertilizers, pesticides and mulching films, can effectively promote the development level of low carbon agriculture in Jiangsu province.%[目的]在低碳经济正成为世界经济社会发展新趋势的背景下,低碳农业成为新的探究热点.科学构建低碳农业经济评价指标体系,有利于为科学评判低碳农业经济发展质量提供重要依据,江苏省作为我国农业大省和经济发达的重叠区,以其为例进行低碳农业经济发展评价对于我国农业发展方向和模式具有先导意义.[方法]基于对低碳农业经济概念和内涵的系统分析,构建由农业发展水平、化学品投入强度、能源利用效率、资源有效利用水平、农业废弃物利用水平等5个准则层的18个指标构成的低碳农业发展水平综合评价指标体系,利用层次分析法(AHP)确定评价指标体系中各指标的权重,并应用线性加权和综合评价模型对江苏省的低碳农业发展水平进行了评价.[结果]江苏省低碳农业从2005年开始得到了快速发展,其中化学品投入强度是制约江苏省低碳农业发展的主要因素,而能源利用效率是促进其发展的关键因素.[结论]降低农业生产中的化肥、农药及农膜等化学投入品的强度,可以使江苏省低碳农业的发展水平有效提升,应予以重点关注.