海南省人均卫生费用的自回归移动平均模型研究

摘要

目的：通过对海南省人均卫生费用的自回归移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测，为地方卫生行政部门的科学决策提供参考。方法：利用Eviews 5.0统计软件对时间序列数据进行处理和分析，建立ARIMA模型进行预测和检验。结果：ARIMA（3，2，2）模型为海南省人均卫生费用提供了较好的预测，模型反映人均卫生费用呈现逐年增长的趋势。结论：人均卫生费用逐年增长，海南卫生行政部门应合理控制卫生费用增长。%Objective:To provide reference for health administration departments through fitting ARIMA model to forecast per capita health expenditure of Hainan province. Methods:Eviews 5.0 software was used for time series analysis and ARIMA model was set up. Results:ARIMA(3,2,2)is considered as the most suitable model through pattern recognition and model test. Conclusion:Per capita health expenditure of Hainan province showed a tendency of increasing. It is suggested that the health administrative department should control rational growth of health expenditure in Hainan province.