Empirical Analysis on Urbanization Patterns in Zhejiang Province Based on Spatial Economy and GIS

摘要

Regional core cities are the growth poles for regional economic development, thus the issue about efficient urbanization pattern has always become a hot spot among researchers and policy makers. The Spatial Economy can be employed to improve it. Nevertheless, there actually exists an obvious gap between its theoretical models and the empirical simulation. To do so, this paper modifies the measurement of initial geographical advantages Stelder gave, and implements the empirical analyses of urban distribution in Zhejiang during the period of 1980-1990 by means of computer simulations in GIS environment. There are several interesting results achieved in this process. Firstly, given the values of parameters (transport cost is τ, substitution elasticity of manufacturing sector ρ, and income share of spending on manufacture δ), initial geographical advantages have the different impacts on urban systems, namely, urban locations, numbers and sizes over time across space. Secondly, the cities were distributed without any overlay in geographical space, which makes the patterns of urbanization generate the largest possible economic efficiencies. Thirdly,the urban systems-the location, number and size of cities-from the simulation of the study area are suitable for the actual social and economic situations in the real world during the testing periods. Such results may have substantial implications for the policy how to choose the way of urbanization in a region.