Forecasting grain production costs in the backdrop of economic cycles

摘要

This research indicates that with the changes in economic cycles, China’s production costs are experiencing "wave-shaped" spiral growth. From 2004 to 2008, China’s grain production costs increased rapidly, with the primary driving force the rapid growth of labor, land and material costs. In the middle stage of industrialization, China’s grain production costs will experience spiral growth following economic cyclical fluctuations, entering relative stability after a certain period. From 2009 to around 2012, grain production costs will drop, but average production costs may be higher than in the current upward cycle. From 2013 to around 2020, grain production costs will rise again and be much higher than in the current upward cycle.