中国服务业的国际竞争力分析：基于附加值贸易的测算

摘要

Based on the value-added trade accounting framework, this paper calculated the revealed comparative advantages index of China’ s service sector from 1995 to 2011, and showed the results compared with the traditional trade accounting method. The results show that: ( 1 ) Whether it is the traditional trade accounting method or value-added trade accounting framework, which showed the same result that China ’ s services as a whole showed a remarkable continuous comparative disadvantage and weak international competitiveness. ( 2 ) From the perspective of the value-added trade, most of the services have emerged in certain comparative disadvantage and there are no significant comparative disadvantage “reversed”. (3)From the factor intensity, although China’s overall labor-intensive services with respect to capital, knowledge and technology-intensive services sector hold some advantages, but which did not form a significant comparative advantage, and the traditional trade accounting also brought about the “statistical illusion” of serious overestimation of labor-intensive services and underestimation of some capital, knowledge and technology-intensive services. Therefore, it is very important to take appropriate accounting methods to objective assessment of China`s services the international competitiveness and then making scientific decisions.%本文基于附加值贸易框架测算了1995-2011年中国各服务业的显示性比较优势指数，并与传统贸易核算法进行了对比分析。研究结果显示：(1)无论是传统贸易核算法还是附加值贸易核算法，其测算结果都表明中国服务业整体呈现出显著的持续性比较劣势，国际竞争力薄弱。(2)从附加值贸易角度看，大部分服务行业都呈现出一定的比较劣势且并没有出现显著的比较劣势“扭转”现状。(3)从要素密集度来看，尽管整体上我国劳动密集型服务业相对于资本、知识和技术密集型服务业来说有一定优势，但并没有形成显著的比较优势，且传统贸易核算法还带来了劳动密集型服务业严重高估以及资本、知识和技术密集型服务业的部分低估的“统计幻象”。因此，采取合适的核算方法对我国服务业国际竞争力进行客观的评价，并依此进行科学的决策具有重要的政策意义。