中国农业保险“政府兜底”和“融资预案”大灾风险分散方式的模拟和比较

摘要

To build management system of catastrophe risks dispersion is key guarantee for sustainable development of agricultural insurance. Catastrophe risks dispersion layer of agricultural insurance company and reinsurance have formed, but when indemnity is beyond capacity of agricultural insurance company ,there is difficult problem for government and agricultural insurance to adopt mode of “government pay exceeding indemnity” or “financing plan” to pay exceeding indemnity. The related research is still insufficient. Therefore,system dynamics model for national agricultural insurance is made to simulate reserves of catastrophe risks and scale of fund for government reserve in the mode of “government pay exceeding indemnity” and“financing plan” respectively during the period of 2007-2035,under risk scenarios that agricultural catastrophe happens once in 10 years,20years,50 years or 100 years. Based on comparison of two catastrophe risks dispersion modes,measures are proposed to form multi-layer system of catastrophe risks dispersion.%建立完备的大灾风险分散管理制度是农业保险实现可持续发展的重要保障。我国已经在农业保险经营机构和再保险层面建立了大灾风险分散方式。但是，当农业保险经营机构偿付能力不足时，是由“政府兜底”，还是采取“融资预案”方式为其提供外部超赔补偿资金，以及政府大灾准备金的规模等，成为当前我国政府和农业保险业界面临的重大难题，而相关研究仍显不足。为此，本文建立全国农业保险的系统动力学模型，通过10年、20年、50年和百年一遇大灾风险的情景假设和动态模拟，展示2007-2035年期间农险经营机构大灾准备金的变化趋势以及“政府兜底”和“融资预案”方式下政府大灾准备金的筹资规模，对“政府兜底”和“融资预案”进行比较，并提出建立我国农业保险大灾风险多层分散体系的建议。