利用东亚地区高分辨率的气候代用指标，通过双重检验的逐步回归方法和小波分析等方法，重建了近400年来的北太平洋年代际振荡指数，并分析了其周期的演变特征。结果表明，近400年来北太平洋年代际振荡指数具有准20年和准50～70年的变化周期。其中1570—1740年代以准70年周期变化为主，1750—1840年代准20年的周期明显，1850年代后准50～70年的周期又变得显著。这种演变特征可能是太平洋海温对全球百年尺度气候波动的响应。%High resolution proxies in East Asia were used to reconstruct the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index over the past 400 years.Optimal factors used to establish the regression equation were chosen by a stepwise regression method.A period of signifi-cance was obtained through wavelet analysis.The results show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index has significant quasi-20 and quasi -50 to -70 year periods.Wavelet analysis results also show that the quasi -70 year period oscillation is its main characteristics from 1570 until the -1740s.The quasi -20 year period is most pronounced from 1750 until the -1840s.The quasi -50 to -70 year cycle becomes significant after the 1850s.It is postulated that observed phenomena of the Pacific sea sur-face temperature may be the result of global centennial climate fluctuations.
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