生物质精炼工艺选择的前期设计

摘要

A methodology for early design-stage evaluation of biorefinery processes that uses multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) panels was developed with the goal of screening out less promising options. Panel members were asked to rate the relative importance of a set of evaluation criteria for biorefinery process implementation at a pulp and paper mill. Three different panels were conducted, each with this same objective. This report compares and assesses the results from the panels. Two of the MCDM panels were comprised of biorefinery specialists of similar backgrounds from government and academia, and the third panel consisted of pulp and paper industry decision makers. In general, consensus was high between all three panels, and especially between the two biorefinery specialist panels;however, certain differences were noted with the industry panel. For three out of eight criteria, these differences were attributable to a difference in the perspective of the forest industry decision makers and biorefinery specialists. For example, for the return on investment criteria, the specialist panels gave a significantly higher importance to current information from technology suppliers because it provides an important short-term perspective. In contrast, the forest industry decision makers thought that information about a particular technology should be critiqued and adjusted based on a systematic assessment of likely future process performance. Differences between the other criteria were attributed to differing interpretations of the criteria. This study gives a detailed overview on how to systematically eliminate process-product biorefinery strategies during early stage design by considering approximate process data and other information assessed in a consistent manner using simple criteria, for which weights can be identified clearly through a panel of decision makers having diverse perspectives.%　　将多标准决策(MCDM)方法应用于生物质精炼工艺选择的前期设计阶段，可以筛除竞争力较差的工艺。决策机构要求将生物质精炼工艺在制浆造纸车间实施的一系列评价指标按重要性的高低进行排序。本文采用了由三个不同专家组组成的决策机构，并对各个决策机构的结论进行了比较和评价。其中的两个决策机构专家组成员具有相似的生物质精炼科研背景，分别来自政府和研究所；第三个决策机构的专家组由制浆造纸行业的决策者组成。一般而言，三个决策机构的决策结论应该是一致的，特别是两个生物质精炼专家组；但与行业决策者专家组所得结论间存在的差异还是应该引起重视。评价指标共有八个，专家对其中的三个存在不同意见，这些差异是由行业决策者和生物质精炼专家组的预期差异引起的。例如，生物质精炼专家考虑到精炼技术短期前景的重要性，所以认为投资回报标准比技术信息有更高的重要性。与此相反，行业决策者认为特定的技术信息应该根据可能成为未来采用技术的性能评估，进行评判和调整，标准的差异还包括对不同标准理解的不同。本文阐释了如何系统地估测生物质精炼的过程和产品，在前期的设计阶段，通过考虑过程数据和其他的估测信息，采用简单的评测标准，可以清楚地分辨出决策机构中不同决策者间观点的差异。