Methods of Estimation on New Born Baby and Construction of Monitoring System under the New Fertility Policy

摘要

After tlle new policy issued, each province has to estimate tlhe potential birtIh and fertility caused by the new fertility policy in order to prepare for the implementation and decrease the risk of the implementation.Using the 2010 census data and data from sampling survey on birth desire conducted by National Health and Family Planning Commission in August 2013,we propose a method for estimating the new birth and new fertility contributed by the new policy,as well as estimating the coming fertility level and making population projection. At 1ast,we also provide a proposal for constructing monitoring system on poIicy implementation.