中国宏观经济短中长期问题与对策分析

摘要

There’re 10 challenges to be faced by China’s macroeconomy. Organizing by short-term, mid-term and long-term, there’s little limited policy for short-term aggregate demand. The last 10 years, China’s macro economy experienced a rare super booming period, the new increment GDP is about three-quarter of 30 years’s since Reform and Opening to outside.Financial, monetary policies and exchange rate mechanism played significant roles during this booming period. Too sensitive for fluctuatingeconomic growth rate, we missed the bestreconstructingopportunity for catching Schumpeter's creative destructionby external shocks. The conclusion of our macro economy is that the main problem is long-term but not the short-term or mid-term. The super booming period highly concentrates and gathering releases in time and space the non-sustainable disadvantage of the developmental pattern now.%中国宏观经济面临的挑战可以列为10个问题。按照短中长期的宏观经济学分析方法进行梳理后，可资借鉴的短期总需求管理政策清单很有限。中国宏观经济过去10年经历了一个罕见的超级繁荣期，新增经济总量占改革开放30年全部新增经济总量的约3/4，财政货币政策与汇率机制在超级繁荣期形成中发挥了重要的作用。对降低经济增长率的过度敏感，错过了利用外部冲击进行“创造性毁灭”式调整的有利时机。有关长期宏观经济分析的结论是，我国宏观经济当前面临的问题，最主要的原因不是短期的，也主要不是中期的，最关键的问题是长期的。超级繁荣期结束后，现有发展模式不可持续的问题已在时间与空间上高度浓缩和集中释放出来。