基于实物期权法的石油开采项目评价方法研究

摘要

Oil exploitation project has typical characteristics of real options, many foreign scholars in the field of real option applications and other aspects of the study, the domestic situation of the specific conditions for the oil law, application of real options is also rare.This article describes the basic theory of Real Options and features, and Blaek-Scholes pricing model using a case study, and compared with the traditional net present value analysis, the net present value method underestimated the value of the project, while the real options law fully considered the flexibility of the project value under uncertainty, thus further ensuring the scientific nature of oil production decisions.%石油开采项目具有典型的实物期权特征,国外许多学者对实物期权方法在油田等方面的应用进行了研究,国内针对油田具体实际情况进行实物期权法的应用研究还很少.本文介绍了实物期权法的基本理论和特点,并采用Blaek-Scholes定价模型进行了案例分析,且与传统的净现值法对比分析,得出净现值法低估了项目的价值,而实物期权法则充分考虑了项目不确定条件下的灵活性价值,因而进一步保证了石油开采决策的科学性.