自2015年以来,伊朗政府为解决回购合同模式合作的局限性问题,陆续向外界推出新石油合同作为油气对外合作新模式,一定程度上降低了合同者超工期 、超投资 、生产操作权等风险,但回购合同监管思维根深蒂固.本文结合新版合同及财税条款,回顾伊朗对外合同历程,梳理新石油合同特征,为国际投资者谈判 、执行合同提供决策参考.以南帕斯某大型气田为案例,假定并选取各项参数,运用折现现金流法,计算合同者投资效益,结果显示,合同者投资效益相对乐观 、资金风险较低 、油价风险降低.新合同模式下,进一步开展不确定性风险分析,建设期 、合同期内投资 、气产量 、油价波动 、DCC摊销期 、操作费和利率是依次影响合同者效益的关键因素.合同者可通过加快建设工期 、节约投资 、控制成本获取高额收益,但承担超工期 、超投资 、费用增加对效益的侵蚀.合同者分享油田生产的长期收益,更有动力选择短期增产以提高自身效益.合同者可从高油价中分享部分超额收益,低油价下亏损的风险相对较低.合同者在投资摊销期和回收上限之间权衡时,更愿意去加快投资回收.%Since 2015 ,seeking for the solution on the limitation to oil and gas cooperation under buy-back contract ,Iranian government continuously recommend a new cooperation model with Iranian petroleum contract ,which to an extent resolves the risks of Time Delay ,overrun investment and the operatorship of production etc .,but the supervision on the contract execution still deeply exists .Based on the contract and fiscal articles ,looking back to the history of Iranian oil & gas cooperation with IOC and studying on the characteristic of contract ,the paper is supposed to provide decision-making reference for negotiating and executing IPC to IOC .The paper mainly studies on the case of gas field of South Pars ,assuming and choosing parameters ,adopting the discounted cash flow method to calculate the investment results of contractor .And the results show that ,under IPC ,the development period ,investment ,production ,oil price , the depreciation period and Libor are the factors successively affecting contractor 's return .Through expediting the progress of construction ,saving the investment and controlling the costs ,contractor can get higher return than expected but bear the profit loss caused by time delay ,over-run investment and costs hiking .Contractor can share the longtime benefit from the production and is motivated to increase the production rate in short time to improve the revenue .Contractor can share the part of extra benefit due to high oil prices with bearing lower risk of loss profit during floundering oil prices .When balancing between DCC depreciation period and the limitation of recovery ,contractor prefers to expedite the recovery of investment .
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