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A new solution to the St Petersburg paradox and estimates under uncertainty

机译:不确定性下圣彼得堡悖论和估计的新解决方案

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Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to argue that Bemoulli's "utility function solution to the St Petersburg paradox" was wrong and to find a new method to solve the paradox.Design/methodology/approach-This goal is attained through two ways:using Bernoulli's and Kramer's utility function to construct new paradoxes;and designing and implementing a new St Petersburg game which does not carry the effect of diminishing marginal utility.Findings-In this paper,the author finds that Bernoulli's "utility function solution to the St Petersburg paradox" was wrong,and also finds a new model to solve the paradox,which is also a brand-new model of estimates under uncertainty.Research limitations/implications-Bernoulli put forward the diminishing marginal utility of currency and thus accordingly provided the utility function solution to solve the paradox.This paper indicates that the Bernoulli's utility function solution does not work.Thus,further research needs to be taken in several aspects:is the diminishing marginal utility of currency tenable? Does the marginal utility of currency decrease monotonically? Are concave utility functions represented by negative index functionswhich are widely used in theoretical study reasonable? Practical implications-The paper proposes a brand-new possible research idea and direction for economic theoretical researches based on uncertainty.Originality/value-This paper proved the untenability of the utility function solution to solve the St Petersburg paradox for the first time and proposed the pioneering "risk adjustment model" of estimates under uncertainty.
机译:目的-本文的目的是证明Bemoulli的“圣彼得堡悖论的效用函数解决方案”是错误的,并找到一种解决悖论的新方法。设计/方法论/方法-该目标通过两种方式实现:伯努利和克莱默的效用函数构造了新的悖论;并且设计并实现了一种新的圣彼得堡游戏,而没有带来边际效用递减的影响。发现-在本文中,作者发现伯努利的“效用函数解决了圣彼得堡悖论”。 “这是错误的,并且找到了一个新的模型来解决这一悖论,这也是不确定性下的一种全新的估计模型。研究的局限/意义-伯努利提出了货币的边际效用递减,从而提供了效用函数解决方案本文指出伯努利的效用函数解不起作用。因此,需要在以下几个方面做进一步的研究:电子货币的边际效用递减?货币的边际效用是否会单调减少?在理论研究中广泛使用的以负指数函数表示的凹效用函数是否合理?实际意义-本文提出了一种基于不确定性的经济理论研究的崭新可能的研究思路和方向。原始性/价值-本文首次证明了效用函数解的不可解性,从而解决了圣彼得堡悖论并提出了在不确定性下开创了估计的“风险调整模型”。

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  • 来源
    《中国金融评论(英文版)》 |2011年第3期|204-219|共16页
  • 作者

    Wang Wen Hui;

  • 作者单位

    Tianjin University Management College, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 入库时间 2022-08-19 04:10:56
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