我国碳排放权交易机制试点地区的ETS管理效率评价

摘要

Based on the analysis of design proposals and survey data from seven Chinese pilot carbon emission trading systems (ETS) and simulation ETS of 19 regions, apply the C2GS2 model as the basic tools to build the data envelope analysis method (DEA) to evaluate the management efficiency of each ETS unit. The model assessment results showed that in the seven pilot ETS units, that of Beijing, Guangdong, Shenzhen and Chongqing are effective management under the DEA method, Shanghai ETS and Tianjin ETS are in the scale ascending stage, Hubei ETS is in the scale descending stage. For three non-DEA effective ETS units, their “efficient projections” on the production frontier surfaces were analyzed for proposing adjustment programs. This study suggests as follows: the coverage of ETS should be less than 50% of total regional emission;the proportion of CCER for compliance should be lowered;in-put factors of each ETS should reflect the feature of the regulated enterprises; punishment mechanism is essential and should be in accordance with violators’ bearing capacity;the emission cap of ETS should not be designed too tight, or it may damage sustainable development capability of regional economy.%以我国7个碳排放权交易机制试点地区的碳交易体系(ETS)和19个地区模拟ETS的设计方案、调研数据为基础，采用C2GS2模型作为基本工具构建数据包络分析模型(DEA)对碳交易机制的管理效率进行评价。结果显示，在7个试点地区中，北京、广东、深圳和重庆ETS机制的管理效率为DEA有效；上海和天津ETS处于规模递增阶段，湖北处于规模递减阶段，通过其在有效生产前沿面上的“投影”提出调整方案。建议：ETS 覆盖的碳排放量低于地区总排放量的50%；下调中国核证自愿减排量(CCER)的碳抵消比例；紧紧围绕机制所覆盖的企业特征，进行投入要素规模设计；惩罚机制必不可少，但惩罚力度需根据本地区ETS投入要素特点进行设计；对ETS的碳排放上限(减排率)不宜设计过紧，否则可能对地区经济可持续发展能力造成损害。