利用新疆天山中东段地区映震效果较好的预测指标,采用AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process,层次分析法)建立了新疆天山中东段地区预测指标体系,在此基础上,应用1~9比率标度法构建相应的判断矩阵,进而计算各指标的权重.结果显示,几项映震效果较好的指标中,权重值相对较大的是短期预测指标中形变异常和部分测震学参数.同时AHP模型给出了新疆天山中东段有无中强地震综合判断指标Y,该值可较好地反映新疆天山中东段地区中强地震的震兆强弱程度和异常可靠性,当Y≥1.15时,新疆天山中东段地区短期内存在发生中强地震的危险.%In this study,we used an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)to establish a prediction in-dex system model for medium-strong earthquakes in middle-eastern Tianshan,Xinjiang,based on better predictors of earthquakes in that region.On this basis,we built a judgment matrix with a 1~9 ratio scale and then calculated the weight of each index.The results indicate that among the better predictors reflecting earthquakes,those with relatively large weight values reflect de-formation anomalies and some seismometry parameters can be used as short-term prediction indi-cators.The AHP model also provides a comprehensive prediction index Y for medium-strong earthquakes in middle-eastern Tianshan,whereby the Y value can better reflect the strength or weakness of the earthquake precursor and abnormality reliability.When the value of Y is no less than 1 .15 ,medium-strong earthquakes are likely to occur in middle-eastern Tianshan,Xinjiang in the short term.
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