'一带一路'沿线国家和地区物流绩效与中国对外贸易潜力

摘要

物流业发展水平特别是交通和物流基础设施质量对国际贸易发展具有非常重要的影响.鉴于全球物流绩效指数是反映各国物流发展水平和贸易便利化程度的重要指标,根据"一带一路"沿线51个国家和地区物流绩效指数及其分项指标,运用拓展贸易引力模型实证分析其物流绩效水平对我国对外贸易潜力的影响.研究发现,"一带一路"沿线国家和地区物流绩效水平不高且差距显著;物流绩效显著正向影响我国与沿线国家和地区双边贸易额,且物流绩效指数分项指标中的海关效率、物流基础设施质量、国际货物运输便利性、物流服务能力和竞争力指标显著正向影响我国与沿线国家和地区的双边贸易额;不同线路中的物流绩效指数及其分项指标对我国对外贸易及其潜力的影响具有异质性.因此,为更好地推动沿线国家和地区资源要素自由流动与市场深度融合,开展更深层次的区域经济合作,一要改善沿线国家和地区特别是南线和中线交通基础设施质量,推进"一带一路"国际骨干物流通道建设;二要加快边境口岸"单一窗口"建设,积极推广"安智贸"模式,提升沿线国家和地区通关一体化水平;三要开展国际物流合作,提升沿线国家和地区物流业服务水平与竞争力.%Logistic development level,especially the level of transportation and logistic infrastructure,has important impact on international trade development.Logistic Performance Index(LPI)is the important index reflecting logistic development level and the degree of trade facilitation.According to LPI and the sub-indexes of 51 countries and regions along the Belt and Road, and with the help of Expanded Trade Gravity Model,the authors make the empirical analysis on the impact of logistic performance on China's trade potential.It is found that:logistic performance in countries and regional along the Belt and Road is not high and differences of that among countries and regions are significant;LPI significantly affects the bilateral trade volume between China and countries and regions along the Belt and Road,such sub-indexes as customs efficiency,logistics infrastructure level,international transportation,logistics capacity and competitiveness has significant positive effect on China's bilateral trade volume with countries and regions along the Belt and Road;and the impacts of LPI and its sub-indexes on China's trade potential in different route are heterogeneous.To better promote the free flow of resources of countries and regions along the Belt and Road and the deep integration of market of these countries and regions,and promote the deep economic cooperation,we should,first improve the quality of transportation infrastructure of these countries and regions,and promote the construction of important international logistic channel;second,we should accelerate the construction of"single window"for border ports, popularize the pattern of"Secure and Smart Trade Line Pilot Program (SSTL)",and improve the level of custom clearance integration of these countries and regions;and third,we should promote international logistic cooperation,and the service level and competitiveness of logistic enterprises in countries and regions along the Belt and Road.