基于饲料需求的我国饲料谷物需求预测分析

摘要

为探讨肉蛋奶生产对饲料谷物需求量,利用误差修正模型和ARIMA模型,基于1980-2013年我国肉蛋奶产量和饲料谷物消费量的数据进行预测分析.结果发现,未来肉蛋奶产量和饲料谷物需求量均呈现逐年增长的态势,2025年肉蛋奶产量将达到18 788万t,饲料谷物需求量将突破20 000万t,达到21 596万t.未来饲料谷物的供需平衡关乎我国畜产品的有效供给.因此,合理扩大饲料谷物的生产面积,提高单产水平以及适度进口、加大饲料科技投入和提高科技转化效率可能是缓解饲料谷物需求压力的有效途径.%Based on the output data of meat,eggs and milk and the consumption of feed grain from 1980 to 2013,the demand of feed grain was predicted by error correction model and ARIMA model.It was found that the output of meat,eggs and milk and demand of feed grain both showed a gradually increasing trend in the future.In 2025,the output of meat,eggs and milk would reach 187.88 million tons and the demand of feed grain would need 215.96 million tons.To release the pressure of feed grain demand,ways including enlarging production of feed grain,improving per unit grain yield,importing feed grain moderately,investing more on technology and improving conversion efficiency were put forwarded.