根据晋祠岩溶水系统的水均衡要素,建立晋祠岩溶水系统水箱模型及水均衡方程.使用晋祠岩溶水系统的补给量、排泄量和岩溶水位等数据建立晋祠岩溶水贮量的亏缺量与岩溶水位间的关系,采用非线性回归分析建立泉流量与岩溶水位的关系,并利用这两个关系替换水均衡方程中的未知量,从而求解所建水箱模型.通过1981至2006年的岩溶水位、亏缺量、泉流量数据检验所建模型,并以绝对误差的绝对值及线性相关系数评价模型的模拟效果.结果表明岩溶水位、亏缺量、泉流量模拟结果的误差均小于0.5,多数误差值小于0.01,线性相关系数均大于0.7,说明所建模型能够较准确地在以年为单位的时间尺度上模拟泉流量、岩溶水位和亏缺量的变化.该模型考虑了人工补给量、管井开采量及煤矿排水量等人为因素,可用于宏观的地下水资源保护及管理.%A tank model and a water balance equation are developedto characterize the function of the karst aquifer of the Jinci Spring based on the water budget ingredients. In order to solve the equation of the model,we found two equations based on two relations and then replace the variables in water balance equation. One is the relations of the groundwater storage deficit and the groundwater table, derived from the monitoring data of the recharge, the other is the relations between spring discharge and karst groundwater table, which is obtained by the nonlinear regression. After solving, the model is verified with the monitoring data, involve karst water table, storage deficit and spring discharge from 1981 to 2006, and its simulated result is evaluated by the absolute value of absolute errors (AAEs) and linear correlation coefficients (LCCs). The evaluation results show, all AAEs are smaller than 0.5, and all the LCCs are bigger than 0.7, which means the model can be used to simulate the annual variation of spring discharges, groundwater table and deficit accurately. In addition, the tank model which takes account of the artificial recharge, pumping and coal mine drainage can be used for macroscopic groundwater protection and management.
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