黑龙江省对外贸易发展方式转变的实证研究

摘要

With AHP approach, an empirical analysis of the development mode transformation of foreign trade in Heilongjaing is conduct-ed, concerning four aspects, foreign trade growth, development drive, foreign trade mix and sustainable development. It is found that before 2010, the change had remained increasing with productive results;however, large scale decline occurred in 2011. Although the foreign trade mix and the sustainable development index are improving year after year, the foreign trade growth and development drive index were sliding respectively after 2007. As a result, the comprehensive assessment value is high at first but weakens later. The study finds that Heilongjiang has achieved strong results in the transformation, but has failed to keep it growing. The government should speed up the building of the business platform, expand trading partner countries and increase the proportion of processing trade so as to facilitate the transformation of the foreign trade development pattern.%基于AHP方法从外贸增长、发展动力、外贸结构和可持续发展四个方面对黑龙江省外贸发展方式转变进行实证分析的结果表明：在2010年以前，黑龙江省对外贸易发展方式转变一直处于上升趋势，成效显著，但2011年出现了大规模下降。从转变度来看，综合评价值的变化趋势呈现出先强后弱的状况，这主要是由于外贸结构和可持续发展指标在逐年改善的同时，外贸增长和发展动力指标在2007年后有不同程度下滑。表明黑龙江省虽取得一定成效，但转变的结果未能得到有效保持。政府应加快建设商务平台，优化贸易地区结构，提升加工贸易份额，以促进黑龙江省对外贸易发展方式的成功转变。