超高层智能建筑中突发事件预测方法研究*

摘要

基于超高层智能建筑突发事件的先兆特征，建立突发事件的自动机模型，利用该模型讨论突发事件是否可预测的问题，得到判定突发事件是否可预测的算法。进一步讨论如何正确地估计突发事件发生的概率大小，并通过对自动机模型增加变迁的发生概率参数，得到准确计算该概率大小的方法。%In the paper, an emergency automaton model is constructed based on the signs of emergency events in super high-rise intelligent buildings, which is thus used to discuss the predictability of emergency events and produce an algorithm for predictability determination of an emergency events. Further, the paper discusses how to estimate the probability of an emergency events properly. At last, an accurate calculation method for probabilities is determined by adding probability variables to the automaton model.