Now-and Fore-casting the Secular Epidemiological Trends and Seasonality of the Comeback of Scarlet Fever in China:A 16-year Time Series Analysis

摘要

Scarlet fever(SF)is a common communicable disease that results from group A Streptococcus(GAS)infections[1].SF accounted for the global loss of life among children 5–15 years of age in the 18th and 19th centuries[2].A rapid reduction in SF morbidity and mortality occurred due to the scale-up of effective antibiotics and improvements in sanitation and nutrition[3].The unexpected increase in the incidence of SF has attracted a renewed interest in infectious diseases[3].Because the triggers that cause SF outbreaks are not fully understood and there is a scarcity of available vaccines protecting susceptible populations from GAS infections,effective prevention and control plans are required to stop the continued spread of SF.