Projections of Global Mean Surface Temperature Under Future Emissions Scenarios Using a New Predictive Technique

摘要

Using numerical model simulations,global surface temperature is projected to increase by 1°C to 4°C during the 21st century,primarily as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.In the present study,a predictive technique incorporating driving forces into an observation time series was used to project the global mean surface temperature under four representative scenarios of future emissions over the 21st century.