主成分分析与灰色模型在水磨河污染成因分析及污染预测中的应用

摘要

According to statistical data of the Urumqi Shuimo River from 2001 -- 2010, determined the main pollution of the 4 sections by using Principal components analysis, and build model GM ( 1, 1) by applying in grey system theory to forecast water quality in each of the four sections in the next three years. The results show that the main pollutants of the Tangcichang spring section and Qifang bridge section are CODcr and NH3 - N, the main pollutants in Lianfeng bridge section and Miquan bridge section are TP, CODMn and Petrolemn, which all belong to organic pollution. Pollution in Each section ~ll increase gradually, the water quality in Tangcichang spring section will reach HI , and the other sections will all belong to poor V . The water pollution in Shuimo River will deteriorate in the future.%根据乌鲁木齐市水磨河2001—2010年环境监测统计数据，运用主成分分析对4个断面的主要污染物进行分析，采用灰色系统理论建立水磨河灰色预测GM（1，1）模型对各断面水环境质量未来3年的状况进行了预测。结果表明，搪瓷厂泉和七纺桥断面的主要污染物为化学需氧量和氨氮；联丰桥、米泉桥断面主要污染项目增加总磷、石油类、高锰酸盐指数，污染类型为有机污染。各断面污染程度呈逐渐上升趋势，除搪瓷厂泉水质断面达三类水质，其他断面水质水体污染较严重，均为劣五类，水质污染将进一步加重。